Pretoria's Stranglehold?

Senator George McGovern's African Affairs Subcommittee has at long last issued its report on South African minerals and their effect on United States and OECD industry.

Overall, the conclusions challenge those of Representative James Santini of Nevada, Chairman of the House Mines Subcommittee, who has been warning of a looming resource war.

McGovern's findings, the results of a study by Congressional Research Service, in summary state:

1. South African supplies of chromium, manganese, vanadium and the platinum group metals are of "significant but not critical" importance, to the U.S. and other OECD nations.
2. In general the U.S. has more adequate stockpiles than those of other OECD countries, and thus would suffer less immediate impact on productive capacity than would some European countries and Japan in the event of a cutoff of South African minerals.
3. The major immediate impact of disruptions in the supply of South African minerals to the U.S. would be indirect, taking the form of higher inflation rates and economic disruptions resulting from direct impact on production in other OECD nations.
4. In the face of actual disruptions, the U.S. over the short term of three to five years, could obtain adequate quantities of the minerals or appropriate substitutes due to the stockpiles, reduced consumption and technological innovation.
5. In the medium term-five to 10 years-the supply situation in manganese and chromium could become serious. Industry would have to adopt hew technologies, secondary recovery and find other sources of supply. If it were unable to do so, then there could be shortages in stainless steels.
6. An interruption in the supply of platinum-group metals would be unlikely to pose serious problems because of the possibility of adopting alternative technologies for automobile emission control and because prospects for efficient secondary recovery seem good.
7. An interruption in the supply of gold from South Africa would not result in direct industrial damage, but it could lead to monetary instability and contribute to global. inflation.

The Japanese are looking into the possibilities of importing coal from the Beluga field, 100 miles west of Anchorage. A mission representing Japanese utilities and the government recently visited Alaska to discuss possible export of coal resources within the state. A successful deal could see Japan importing up to nine million tons a year from Alaska by 1985. Nissho Iwai Corporation and Marubeni Corporation are the two Japanese firms involved.

Beluga reserves are estimated at 600 million tons. The coal is not the best in the world: high moisture content and a low caloric content would normally make its export questionable. But soaring oil costs make it attractive. The coal is close to the coast which reduces transport costs, and there is discussion about mixing the coal with oil which could make its handling easier.